Opening Day: Thoughts

Muneer: Opening day is in the books. I have to say that the boys in blue didn't look half bad yesterday. Meche pitched as an ace should, we got some good offense, and have the first W in the books. An added bonus was shutting up Curt Schilling. He has become an insufferable gasbag ever since he got to Beantown. How about he stops blogging and starts pitching a little? You know I'm a pessimist when it comes to the team, but I hope this is the start of a season-opening run like the team had back in 2003. Even though I lost $10 to you that year, it was damn good to see the Royals on the good side of .500.

Kevin: Well, I have to agree that the Royals won their BIGGEST game of the year – that is, provided they don’t end up in a playoff race – which, if this was three years ago, this team would be in the running in the Central – however, the Central is by far the strongest division in baseball (at least on paper) so our youngsters are not a good bet to make noise – but at least, for now, the Royals are in First Place!

Gil Meche probably pitched in the biggest game of his career yesterday and came up in a BIG way – even after his first inning problems (lets face it, he could have just melted down). For a pitcher who has been dogged as not having an ace mentality, it looks like the money and pressure has Gil rising to the occasion – at least on opening day. Tony Pena Jr is a huge improvement over Berroa – he can work the count and he’s a smart player (i.e. the slide at third to avoid a tag out). I think he’s drawn a little less than a walk per game (including spring training) since he came over.

Lets face it, long suffering Royals fans should feel good about yesterday, and I guarantee you – that win sold a LOT of tickets for the team. Veddy Nice!

Muneer: Alas, the pessimist in me just can't be kept down. I've been watching this team for too long to think that one game will make such a big difference. Meche and Pena certainly did well for themselves, but opening day doesn't make a season. The Royals are in what may be baseball's toughest division. The Tigers, White Sox, Indians, and Twins are all solid clubs. In order to be competitive this season, the Royals need to have something close to a .500 record against all of those teams. I just don't see that happening. This team still has some glaring holes in the pitching staff, but a sterling offense. I think this team has the potential to be like the 1999 squad. That year, the Royals were something like 4th overall in the majors in offense, and 30th overall in pitching. Unless we have some in-season moves or a couple of the current starters suddenly find some consistency, it will still be a long season at the K.

Kevin: Well, I think Meche’s performance in a big game atmosphere bodes well – and I frankly don’t see how Pena (just even considering the “little” things) can’t be an improvement over Berroa (God Bless that poor guy). There are a lot of things that needs to come together, but the first, and biggest chip was that Meche CAN rise to the occasion. It is a long season, and heck, pitchers have up and down days – and you know, I think we will all be thrilled if this team can avoid 90 losses – however, the pessimist in you lost 10 buck to me in the past on prognosticating (and frankly, I’ve got bragging rights in Fantasy Baseball as well). I’m right – you’re wrong! Heh heh.

Muneer: Look, I think that this team has potential in 2008 and 2009, but I don't see 2007 being their year. Don't forget, the 1999 team finished 64-97. I enjoy fireworks as much as the next person, but we both know that pitching is what wins championships. This team just doesn't have enough at the major league level to be able to compete in the AL Central. "I'm right - You're wrong"? Is that the argument you use in court when all else fails? We both know that the Royals have had over 100 losses in 4 of the last 5 years. The organization has been in a shambles since the mid 1990's. Dayton may finally reverse the trend of illogical decision making the front office has displayed since the early 1990's. I need to see some more positive steps being taken before I can believe in this team once again.

Kevin: Its funny, I still have the Royals pegged as a losing team, one that will hopefully not lose more than 90 games, and you’re making me sound like Pollyanna? I don’t know why it isn’t important that Meche came through in an important game. A lot of guys would have just folded under the pressure, and supposedly Meche was not a pressure player (one who couldn’t rise to the occasion). I don’t see how one can overlook the fact that he stepped up in THE BIGGEST game in his career? Its sort of like Suppan stepping up in the playoffs. Its just nice to see this guy succeed under pressure. He’ll not be under the same pressure for a while this season (that is, big crowd, important game), but I’m looking at that as a good sign, and Pena has been getting on base since he’s been here. Good sign. Berroa had NO WALKS in Spring Training!? What gives? We played at about a .435 clip with a much worse team last year (from June on) and had a winning month, or near winning month late last season AGAIN WITH much less talent, and we were still playing the very tough AL Central – I’m just basing my analysis on past performance and the fact that YES, the Royals have more talent now than they did to close last year…. to hopefully…win… 70 or so games…and, I wouldn’t be surprised at a winning record…

Muneer: I think it's hyperbole to say that this was the biggest game of Meche's career. He's pitched for some excellent Seattle teams that either made the playoffs or challenged for a spot until the end of the season. Pitching Opening Day at the K is not on that level. I'd say that the Royals will be a 70-92 team this year. Which is an improvement. Unlike you, I would be extremely surprised at a winning record. If there is to be a repeat of 2003, then multiple members of the pitching staff will need to have career years, as happened in 2003. I don't think KC can catch lightning in a bottle like that more than once.

Berroa and Pena, Jr.: The Royals' new SS experiment

Muneer: In other news, the Royals are finally trying to replace Angel Berroa, something they should have done last season. Right now, there are apparently 20 players the Royals have targeted, none of whom are in the Royals’ camp. The possibilities range from Clint Barmes of the Rockies all the way to Brandon Wood, the Angels’ superprospect. I don’t expect the Royals to get Wood, and I hope they don’t get Barmes. The last time they picked up a light-hitting shortstop from Coors (Neifi Perez), the results were less than satisfactory.

I am very happy that Dayton is finally addressing what has been a problem for too long. With the offensive prowess displayed by some of the other SS’s, there is no reason to keep trotting Berroa out there. Berroa has been a textbook example of a player who not only brings nothing to the table, but actually takes things off of it. Who but the Royals could justify starting a light hitting SS who also happens to be horrible defensively?

Kevin: I think everybody agrees that Berroa is done… I bet he’s actually like 35 and not 28 years old.

Muneer: Well, the weekend has passed, and Berroa is officially out as the Royals’ SS. In his place we have Tony Pena, Jr. Here is what USA Today’s fantasy baseball people had to say about him:

“Pena has a career .253/.285/.335 line in 2,308 minor league at-bats. He did take a step forward last year, batting .282/.312/.359 in 298 at-bats as a 25-year-old in Triple-A, but with no power or patience, that’s the top level of his ability.”

So, we’ve basically gotten an Andres Blanco type at the expense of Cordier, who was deemed good enough to be a second round pick in 2005. This doesn’t look good for Dayton. Pena is a mediocre hitter, has no power, and is not a good basestealer. Given his defense over the last few games, he seems to have trained in the Berroa school of shortstop play. How does he bring anything to the table that Blanco or Alex Gonzalez couldn’t have?

I’d say it’s his worst trade since JP Howell for Gathright. Before you say anything, Gathright is sitting on the bench, while Howell has been better than most of the Royals’ pitchers and is quite likely the new 5th starter in Tampa.

Back to the subject at hand though, why get a guy like Pena when you have Alex Gonzalez in camp? The guy has a .243 lifetime batting average, but at least he compiled those numbers in the majors, as opposed to Pena’s unimpressive minor league stat line. He also has had some decent power numbers, which Pena has not shown at all.

The only thing that makes this trade make any sense to me is that Dayton drafted Pena, and sees something. I sure hope he’s right, because at the moment, this trade has the potential to blow up in the Royals’ faces.

Kevin: We are still the Royals financially, and so I’m not sure what other options they really had in terms of bringing in a new SS and not wasting any more money. I would like to know what it was about Alex Gonzales that they didn’t like – I suspect though that Dayton Moore wanted a more dynamic defensive player and, well, he sounds like he’s of the belief that Pena will hit and will develop more in that area (and from what I understand, Pena actually got a late start in his baseball career). I’m willing to see how it goes, but both sides had to take risk here, and while Cordier might have a higher ceiling if healthy, it seems we really needed to make a move at SS. On the bright side, Pena has walked in each of his first two games with the Royals, so I think that’s a huge improvement over what we had. I feel bad for Anhell … but when he played SS in KC (other than that magical rookie season) it was more like we were “Inhell” as fans.

Muneer: Pena appears to have begun his minor league career at 19, and then resumed it at 21. I don’t know what he was doing for the two years in between.

We did need to make a move at SS, but why not make a move for a guy who will at least be guaranteed to hit better than Berroa. That’s not a sure thing with Pena. He may walk, but there is not a lot of evidence to indicate markedly better plate discipline than Berroa or Gonzalez.

Finally, by bringing Pena in, Berroa’s market value has dropped considerably. Teams know that the Royals have no interest in keeping him, and will not be motivated to offer any real value. I think Dayton has really botched this situation.

What I would have done is platoon Berroa and Gonzalez, try to establish some value for Sanders and Brown, and then trade one of those guys for a SS better than Pena. As it stands, the Royals now have 3 no-hit, mediocre-fielding SS’s. That’s two too many.

Kevin: I think the only conclusion that we can draw from why Pena over Gonzalez is that Pena must have better defensive capabilities, and has a better bat than Blanco, and is somebody who knows how to play the game in the right way (the intangibles). I think if the Royals were ever going to get anything useful in exchange for Berroa it would have happened, at this point, making him a utility player is their only hope. And as for saying Dayton more botched the situation, I couldn’t disagree more – botch is a strong word. Neither of us have seen Pena play yet, and Dayton was obviously VERY familiar with his capabilities being that he came from Atlanta, plus he’s making the major league minimum. Cordier has been hampered by injuries, heck look at the broken road riddled with injured minor league pitchers – they guy won’t even pitch this year. Not to mention, Pena is just keeping the spot warm until Bianchi is ready (which is another IF as he’s been hampered by injuries constantly). Savaging this trade is like writing a movie review without having seen the movie. Lets revisit at the All Star break.