Opening Day: Thoughts

Muneer: Opening day is in the books. I have to say that the boys in blue didn't look half bad yesterday. Meche pitched as an ace should, we got some good offense, and have the first W in the books. An added bonus was shutting up Curt Schilling. He has become an insufferable gasbag ever since he got to Beantown. How about he stops blogging and starts pitching a little? You know I'm a pessimist when it comes to the team, but I hope this is the start of a season-opening run like the team had back in 2003. Even though I lost $10 to you that year, it was damn good to see the Royals on the good side of .500.

Kevin: Well, I have to agree that the Royals won their BIGGEST game of the year – that is, provided they don’t end up in a playoff race – which, if this was three years ago, this team would be in the running in the Central – however, the Central is by far the strongest division in baseball (at least on paper) so our youngsters are not a good bet to make noise – but at least, for now, the Royals are in First Place!

Gil Meche probably pitched in the biggest game of his career yesterday and came up in a BIG way – even after his first inning problems (lets face it, he could have just melted down). For a pitcher who has been dogged as not having an ace mentality, it looks like the money and pressure has Gil rising to the occasion – at least on opening day. Tony Pena Jr is a huge improvement over Berroa – he can work the count and he’s a smart player (i.e. the slide at third to avoid a tag out). I think he’s drawn a little less than a walk per game (including spring training) since he came over.

Lets face it, long suffering Royals fans should feel good about yesterday, and I guarantee you – that win sold a LOT of tickets for the team. Veddy Nice!

Muneer: Alas, the pessimist in me just can't be kept down. I've been watching this team for too long to think that one game will make such a big difference. Meche and Pena certainly did well for themselves, but opening day doesn't make a season. The Royals are in what may be baseball's toughest division. The Tigers, White Sox, Indians, and Twins are all solid clubs. In order to be competitive this season, the Royals need to have something close to a .500 record against all of those teams. I just don't see that happening. This team still has some glaring holes in the pitching staff, but a sterling offense. I think this team has the potential to be like the 1999 squad. That year, the Royals were something like 4th overall in the majors in offense, and 30th overall in pitching. Unless we have some in-season moves or a couple of the current starters suddenly find some consistency, it will still be a long season at the K.

Kevin: Well, I think Meche’s performance in a big game atmosphere bodes well – and I frankly don’t see how Pena (just even considering the “little” things) can’t be an improvement over Berroa (God Bless that poor guy). There are a lot of things that needs to come together, but the first, and biggest chip was that Meche CAN rise to the occasion. It is a long season, and heck, pitchers have up and down days – and you know, I think we will all be thrilled if this team can avoid 90 losses – however, the pessimist in you lost 10 buck to me in the past on prognosticating (and frankly, I’ve got bragging rights in Fantasy Baseball as well). I’m right – you’re wrong! Heh heh.

Muneer: Look, I think that this team has potential in 2008 and 2009, but I don't see 2007 being their year. Don't forget, the 1999 team finished 64-97. I enjoy fireworks as much as the next person, but we both know that pitching is what wins championships. This team just doesn't have enough at the major league level to be able to compete in the AL Central. "I'm right - You're wrong"? Is that the argument you use in court when all else fails? We both know that the Royals have had over 100 losses in 4 of the last 5 years. The organization has been in a shambles since the mid 1990's. Dayton may finally reverse the trend of illogical decision making the front office has displayed since the early 1990's. I need to see some more positive steps being taken before I can believe in this team once again.

Kevin: Its funny, I still have the Royals pegged as a losing team, one that will hopefully not lose more than 90 games, and you’re making me sound like Pollyanna? I don’t know why it isn’t important that Meche came through in an important game. A lot of guys would have just folded under the pressure, and supposedly Meche was not a pressure player (one who couldn’t rise to the occasion). I don’t see how one can overlook the fact that he stepped up in THE BIGGEST game in his career? Its sort of like Suppan stepping up in the playoffs. Its just nice to see this guy succeed under pressure. He’ll not be under the same pressure for a while this season (that is, big crowd, important game), but I’m looking at that as a good sign, and Pena has been getting on base since he’s been here. Good sign. Berroa had NO WALKS in Spring Training!? What gives? We played at about a .435 clip with a much worse team last year (from June on) and had a winning month, or near winning month late last season AGAIN WITH much less talent, and we were still playing the very tough AL Central – I’m just basing my analysis on past performance and the fact that YES, the Royals have more talent now than they did to close last year…. to hopefully…win… 70 or so games…and, I wouldn’t be surprised at a winning record…

Muneer: I think it's hyperbole to say that this was the biggest game of Meche's career. He's pitched for some excellent Seattle teams that either made the playoffs or challenged for a spot until the end of the season. Pitching Opening Day at the K is not on that level. I'd say that the Royals will be a 70-92 team this year. Which is an improvement. Unlike you, I would be extremely surprised at a winning record. If there is to be a repeat of 2003, then multiple members of the pitching staff will need to have career years, as happened in 2003. I don't think KC can catch lightning in a bottle like that more than once.

The Royals’ Excess OFs and a little pitching talk

Kevin: How bout the royals, still seeing promising signs – we do have to trade Brown and Sanders we have too many other young guys who deserve a chance in our OF…

Muneer: You know, I would actually hold on to Brown and Sanders for now. Butler’s defensive skills still need work, Shane Costa is not an everyday guy, and neither is Gathright. I think that if the team holds on to the vets, it allows Butler and Costa time in the minors to get their games together and keeps Gathright’s atrocious stats on the bench. What do I know though? Given the Royals’ history, they’ll bring Butler up for two weeks to ride the bench and then rush him into the lineup in late April.

Kevin: Costa could play everyday – at least platoon with Gathright. Don’t forget Butler, Maier and Lubanski all in AAA OF as well. Maier is really close I think. We just need to make sure the young guys get a chance to develop.

Muneer: To seize upon your last point, the Royals do need the young guys to develop. That’s exactly why they have to keep Sanders and Brown. We’ve seen in the past what has happened when the Royals allowed players to develop at the major league level. In my view, a player is basically done developing his basic skill set when he gets called up. Once up in the majors, that player should basically be honing that skill set and helping the team. The majors are no place for a young player to continue learning exactly how to play or hit.

Gathright and Costa are both part-timers, and for good reasons. To take the concept of two wrongs, two platoon outfielders don’t make one decent major leaguer. Butler should be up midseason if Dayton has any sense. I fail to believe his defense is THAT bad.

I hadn’t thought about Maier and Lubanski as being ready for the show. I say they’re still at least another year off.

Kevin: Well, the point is you can’t have Costa or Gathright in the minors, their time is now, and Costa projects to a good offensive hitter.. I mean, really, so you send Costa to the minors—what then for Lubanksi, Butler and Maier…and Huber.. see it’s a really crowded situation…

Muneer: You can certainly send Gathright to the minors if needed. It’s not like it’ll stunt any developing he still has left. Gathright is a no-hit, all-speed guy. Those sorts of players are always 4th OFs or pinch runners.

On Lubanski, we’ll have to wait and see. He hit .282 with 15 HRs and 11 SBs last year. Those are good numbers, but they don’t indicate an MLB-ready player. The Texas League is notoriously hitter friendly, and if those stats are all Lubanski could muster, he’s not ready for the show.
No arguments on Butler. He’s more than ready offensively, and I think should be called up midseason at the latest. At that point, the Royals should look into moving Sanders or Brown.
I agree Costa should be up now. But, I think it’s more important to showcase Brown and Sanders so that the Royals can get maximum value. Which puts Costa’s ETA in becoming an everyday player at sometime in June.

Maier is decent, but like Lubanski, he put up only above average stats at Wichita. Based on past performance, I’d say Maier is ahead of Lubanski right now. But, neither belong with the big club just yet. They both need at least another full season at Omaha.

I don’t think Huber even warrants much consideration as part of the Royals’ future. He has put up mediocre numbers at Omaha, and failed miserably each time he’s been up in KC. Granted, the sample size with KC is not that large, but he has not done much to inspire confidence in Royals fans with his Omaha stats.

Kevin: Yes yes yes, but we can’t keep all these guys around – at least two of them must go. Although, isn’t Huber manning 1B rather than OF? Gathright’s been having a very good spring by the way, Gathright deserves one more chance to succeed – he should at least be our 4th OF at this time. You need to check the spring numbers though, you are right on some counts, and wrong on others. Huber talked about his poor performance last year as a result of him trying to generate more power, but once we went back to his normal plate approach he hit very well. Huber should be traded, I agree, but he need to perform in AAA and let us spin off for a pitcher or a Middle IF.
How about pitching? We’ve actually got a nice fight on our hands – Meche has been solid, Perez has been awful (but is a lock for the rotation), Hudson hasn’t done anything to lose his grip… but the last two slots should, at this time, belong to Bannister and Soria.

Muneer: Dude, 1B is an even bigger roadblock for Huber. Shealy’s got that spot locked up unless he becomes like Berroa. As far as the explanations as to why he sucked last year, I need to see him put up numbers like he did at AAA before I can believe any excuses for last year. Plus, if Huber was such a star in the Royals’ eyes, then what was the rationale behind trading for Shealy?

I wholeheartedly agree that Gathright should be a 4th OF. I’m saying that he has no business starting for a decent MLB team.
Before we start crowning Gil Meche as the new ace, we need to be mindful of the fact that he has only pitched 3 innings so far. I’m waiting until later in the spring to see where he really is. Same for Soria. He’s not facing true MLB competition right now. A lot of these batters playing in spring training right now will be in the minors or bagging groceries in a month. I’m reserving all judgement on pitching until about March 25.

But, if I had to set the rotation today, I’d put in de la Rosa as the 5th starter. Soria hasn’t pitched above A ball. He’ll get killed if he’s trotted out there against the AL’s big bats. There’s a huge differences between an A ball hitter and Gary Sheffield.

Kevin: Woah nelly, I’m just saying I may have misspoke in stating that Huber was an OF rather than a 1B. He’s still young and a prospect – the idea obviously is that he produce so well the Royals can spin him off (as I mentioned). One caveat to Gathright, if he can be a high OBP guy and can actually steal 80% of his attempts, I’d say he’s a starter in the Majors – this is the last chance we’ll have to see if he’s that type of guy – if he is, he’s still probably best off being traded at that point.
Who crowned Meche as the new ace – he’s been solid so far in Spring Training (compared to Odalis Perez). Soria started yesterday and as you know, he did face MLB players, as the true MLB talent usually start games and then are benched in favor of young guys, so starting pitchers can tend to give an indication on their ability more so than those who come in later in the game. Also, all indications are that Soria’s work in the Mexican League was AA quality AND it’s a hitters league, so its not completely outrageous for pitchers to be ready to go after AA work. There’s still a lot of pitching left in Spring Training, but as things stand now, Soria has been THE BEST the Royals have thrown out there so far.

Muneer: The reason I lumped Huber in with OF was because he will not beat out Shealy. OF is the only viable option for him, unless he goes back to catching.
Gathright has had several chances with TB and KC to prove he’s a high OBP guy, and he hasn’t done it. He’s had quite a few chances to become an elite basestealer and he hasn’t done it. The Royals need to stop being lured by pure potential and send out the boring guys who will actually produce. He’s simply not going to be a starter in KC, simply because the team has other, more reliable options.

Dude, I can see a hitter coming up here from AA, but how many pitchers make that jump successfully. Just look at the track record of the Royals bringing up guys from AA (Greinke, Jim Pittsley, etc.). It’s not good. The Mexican League may be the equivalent of AA, but it’s still two steps in the chain away from MLB, and Soria has not played an entire season at that level. If the Royals are smart, they’ll either buy him from his old team or stash him away as one out specialist.

Why is Meche the ace? I think there are about 55 million reasons why. If he’s not the ace, then what the hell were the Royals thinking giving him that ridiculous contract?

Kevin: Gathright is only 25 years old, just one year older than Mitch Maier. I think you are being to quick to write him off. I don’t think he’s necessarily better than f 4th OF though, I just still think he can be a valuable player. As for Soria, we’ll have to see, he’ll be with us for a whole season regardless, and he projects as a starter, so perhaps the Royals will use him for that purpose.

Muneer: Soria projects as a starter, but when was the last time a pitcher made the jump from A ball and was successful. I know you brought up the point that he played in the Mexican League, but that is a winter league and they don’t play a full season. Hitters at the MLB level are a lot better than A ball hitters at making adjustments and taking advantage of a pitcher’s faults. If Soria is used in anything but middle relief, we can expect a Lima-esque performance from him.
Gathright is 25, fine. He technically has not entered his prime. I agree that he can be useful, but there is no way I think it’s feasible for the Royals to give 300-400 ABs to a guy who hit only .238 last year. Those ABs would be better given to guys like Maier or Costa. Gathright really isn’t suited for much right now besides pinch running. He can’t hit enough to be a valuable pinch hitter, and is fielding is not good enough to make him a viable defensive replacement. On second thought, maybe he should be in the minors, improving his defense like Billy Butler.

Kevin: If Soria continues to be the absolute best pitcher in Spring Training the rest of the way, he’s earned a spot as a starter. Probably the fifth starter but he deserves that spot. That’s why they play the games, right? There’s still 15 some odd games left in ST and he’ll have a lot more innings and will face higher caliber hitters. Its just not out of the realm of possibilities that he could be slated as a starter if he performs at the level he has been at.

I’m not ready to write Gathright off, but we have players/options who will contribute more to the team overall – but he’s had a very good spring, has hit well and got on base at every level other than the Majors, this is his season to make or break, either way, I think the Royals trade him later – but we all know what speed on the basepaths does to help the hitters – and that’s why I think Gathright is an important player to develop, he’ll not have the power of DeJesus, but if Gathrigh can get an OBP over .360 and lets fact it, improve his steals rate, then I think the Royals have a decision to make. The whole point is 3-4 of our OFs are trade fodder anyway.